Essentially yes because both holding elections or negotiating would spell doom to many Kiev politicians and very likely not just their political careers.

The primary problem is that for negotiations to even begin is that Ukraine itself has a law that forbids anybody to negotiate with Putin before Ukraine has regained all it’s lands, even Zelensky himself would technically speaking commit treason by agreeing to talk on peace terms before this law is repealed. That is unless Scholz speaks of the “Zelensky peace plan” that is basically Russia gives up all the pre 2014 territories and then Kiev will negotiate with Moscow. Which is equally nonsensical and impossible situation.

I don’t know if what if any Scholz is trying to do here. All talk most likely for domestic audience, because the opposition won big in regional elections in Germany lately on “no more money to Ukraine” platform.

It really shows that you get more bang for your buck when you have a government institutions doing the research vs government just giving profit driven companies money to do research as in a means of doing R&D. The company as a profit driven entity is just going to take a share as profit for itself at every turn and then do with the rest the same or less than what the government institution would have done anyway, because it didn’t need to concern itself with maximizing shareholder profit.

These aspi studies studies probably only anger and demoralize their intended audience.

Ukraine will not negotiate peace, ever. Everybody should understand this. These talks are nothing but theater. When Ukraine talks about peace it does speak about compromise, dialogue or even talks, it means that Ukrainian representatives get to climb to yet another podium to reiterate to the world that Ukraine getting it’s own maximalist goals achieved and Russia essentially totally capitulating, paying reparations and of course regime change in Kremlin is a must. They say that this IS peace and only way towards peace and then of course ask more money and weapons. Too bad this strategy pulled straight from La La Land, and no factor on or off the battlefield supports this Ukraine getting it’s lands back is ever happening. What happens when Ukrainian state is agreement incapable? I guess it means that Kiev makes the removal of Ukrainian state a precondition for peace. What they are trying with this is getting Chinese strung in to the narrative, somehow. They already got the Chinese pissed with their previous comments like a week back when they spat on all proposals that China came up with, because for Kiev being outwardly unreasonable, defiant and putting up a brave face for PR is more important than reality on the ground or lives.

Nothing will fundamentally change.

Good. Necessity creates innovation. not so good for ASML that is getting competition created for it by the sanctions that aren’t doing so hot.

International law in this context just means that a single global hegemon can no longer push everybody else around and call it’s will and interests “law”, and therefore claim that it’s interest somehow benevolent and part of how just things are. That is exactly what “rules based international order” means.

Not that we have ever had any law that equally applies to everybody equally. All laws and even international law needs a hobbesian Behemoth that is more powerful than any other to enforce “international law” and is in the end above it since it is at the best position to enforce and set the “law”. The UN and it’s institutions are basically basically a discussion club by design and it can’t do shit so post 1990 world the Behemoth has been the world hegemonic United states. Now that US has declined relatively as Russia, China, India, Iran, etc have risen it finds itself unable to enforce anything through hard or soft power and therefore the idea of law, stability and peace under US dissipates. Not that it was ever lawfully, peaceful or stable, that illusion only applied to the western core nations of this now dead American world.

All of the sanctions and European energy security were banked on the idea that Russian frontlines would collapse under the super Nato equipped Ukrainian counterattack and then there would be a regime change in Moscow and gas would flow again. Now Ukraine is on the backfoot, there is no change in Moscow and Russia oil still flows to Europe, but only through intermediaries and loopholes, because there really never was an short to medium term alternative for it in the way the global oil market is structured. The sanctions were actual serious sanctions and their architects thought that they would actually work, but the decisions were made on faulty assumptions of effectiveness of sanctions and the structure of Russia economy.

Germany has been the second largest military supplier to Ukraine after the US. They are very much providing for that war too.

For german government “Never again” meant just never again genocide against jews. All other people are fine and free game.