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Cake day: June 8th, 2023

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  • My comment was intended to highlight how fundamentally our views differ and not to start a discussion. I’m aware that my view is not completely neutral but I feel like your view is too different from mine to productively discuss them.

    Yes, the Russian economy is doing better than expected but, obviously, a country at war with embargoes and large amounts of the workforce at the front will suffer. And yes, the current counter-offensive is not going as well as planned but the fact that Ukraine even started it and is making, albeit small, gains shows that they are at least on approximately even footing.



  • TBH, I haven’t read that much about the aftermath. I only heard some parts (e.g. the secret services) kept quiet for quite some time which suggests for me that they didn’t really care either way. If everyone really supported him it does make a coup/collapse less likely. The impression I got was simply:

    • The support for Putin was cautious, especially in the beginning
    • Putins handling and Lukashenkos involvement do not convey strength thereby making everyone with power more likely to support a future coup

    I also don’t think the gang of eight is that diectly relatable because the SU collapsed. Here, it would simply mean replacing one president for another. In theory, a coup is as simple as a successful assasination (ignoring the successor question).

    For me, it doesn’t look like there is any way out for Putin. Winning the war is unrealistic at this time, would take a long time and would result in a long embargo from the west, destroying the economy even further. Losing the war will probably result in extreme protests with all the casualties that already occurred. We will see whatever happens. I assume that Prigozhin failed not because the elite support Putin but because they are even more afraid of him. I assume everyone with money wants the war to end.

    And about the USA, yeah that’s a bit of a whataboutism. There is a lot of division there and I think they are one bad president away from significantly worsening the situation. We will see about that too I guess.