Lol, I’m not gonna bother breaking down your arguments again. You clearly aren’t interested in any kind of honest discourse. The constant flip flop between being purposely obtuse and then aggressively pedantic is a wild way of trying to get your point across.
It’s actually kind of impressive that you can work in a variety of different logical fallacies into so many of the responses while never addressing the original topic.
Have a great rest of your day.
China has been actively dumping US securities for years now. Given the openly hostile stance US is taking towards China, I fully expect that this trend will only accelerate going forward https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202303/1287406.shtml
And yet there is obviously still enough demand for US securities to allow the US to borrow more money every year.
oil is a small portion of Russian overall economy.
It’s like 30-40% of their federal revenue and funds the entirety of their national wealth fund… Which is what they are utilizing instead of issuing securities. I would hardly call it a small portion of their economy.
The whole point of buying securities is that you expect them to retain value, hence why it’s important for them to be backed by something tangible.
The whole point of buying securities is to have a reserve of foreign currency with high liquidity at large volumes. Gold is tangible, but it holds no inherent value, it isn’t exactly the easiest thing to move around the globe, and is a fairly easy market to disrupt if attempting to liquidate at significant volumes. There’s a reason everyone moved away from the gold standard in the first place.
That’s a process of issuing currency, you’re not borrowing anything from anybody.
Ahh, yes. Lending value and then being paid back that value with interest isn’t “borrowing”. I have some calls to make to some credit card companies…
Fluctuations in trade obviously impact domestic economy, but they can be weathered and they’re not catastrophic in the long run.
I think you’re moving the goal post here… Also, “can be weathered and they’re not catastrophic in the long run” requires supporting evidence.
That’s precisely what Russia illustrated at the start of the war when the west put the most severe sanctions it could come up with.
How? The Russian government moved to a war time economy, growth isn’t exactly a surprise in that scenario. The hard part is sticking the landing, what happens if they are succeeded or fail in Ukraine? It’s not like war actually creates material value that is tangible and lasting for the majority of citizens.
Misallocation of labour and resources as I’ve explained several different ways in this very thread.
And what causes the misallocation of labour and resources…? You are just utilizing cyclical logic.
Politics encompass more than simply allocation of resources. In this particular case, the politics were that Yeltsin decided he’d rather be the president of Russia than a deputy of USSR
So economic collapses are always caused by a misallocation of resources and productive forces… but not in the case of the USSR. Their economic collapse was solely because of Yeltsin. Got it…
economic decline was the core reason, then you wouldn’t have seen high level of public support for USSR.
We weren’t talking about the dissolution of the USSR, when I brought up them as an example I was solely talking about the economic crisis of the late 80’s and 90’s.
You’d see a situation that’s similar to what we see in US today where majority of the population no longer believes that their country is working in their interest.
You’re conflating voting to keep the USSR and “believing the country no longer working for their interest”. It’s not like 30% of the country is voting to change their nationality/economic system.
grew up in USSR, so I’m speaking from personal experience here. The kinds of horrors that are happening in US today, were completely beyond imagination.
A bit anecdotal don’t you think? I’m sure if I asked some nepo baby if America is doing well I’d get the same exact answer as someone who grew up in the projects.
The shortages started after the dissolution, and introduction of liberal reforms. One thing USSR did quite well was ensuring that everyone had a decent minimum standard of living.
Your link is from 83’, aka not the late 80s and early 90s. Here’s one from 1990
Again, we were originally talking about a specific monetary policy. You seem to be wanting to bring this all back to a gish gallop about the Soviet Union, and not even about their economic policy.
Again, that’s my original point that labor and resources aren’t being allocated in the interest of the majority which is leading to discontent and civil unrest among the public.
And how does civil unrest connect back to debt monetization? How is modern Russia allocating nearly half of their federal spending on the military and “secret” spending, serving the interest of the majority?
I’m not arguing against backing debt with securities though.
What was the whole point of the entire conversation?
What I’ve been saying is that Russia is in a good position to do so.
I don’t agree with your assessment. If they were able to sell securities they would be selling more securities, it’s kinda a no brainer. However, securities are susceptible to sanction activities. They’d rather use their gold reserves as a way to move around sanctions than to give the US another easily trackable and sanctionable resource.
The main item with high liquidity that’s not being heavily targeted by sanctions is oil and gas. But, utilizing those for securities would effect revenue already earmarked for the Fed and their national monetary fund.
I never claimed Russia is on the brink of collapse or anything. So long as oil stays above $60 a barrel, allowing them to fund their nwf and maintain wartime spending, they’ll probably be fine for a while. But that doesn’t mean they can solve indefinite deficit spending via “printing money like the US”.
It’s very obviously shrinking in the long run given that now there’s a whole alternate world economy forming around BRICS
If US debt is growing at an ever faster past, that logically demands that us securities are being sold at an ever higher pace…
China is one of the largest buyers of US securities. Having a large foreign exchange reserve is beneficial for export economics whose government mainly relies on vat taxes for revenue.
hence why sanctions against Russia failed in the first place. So, it’s pretty clear that Russia would have no problem backing their security with tangible stuff that countries need.
Sanctions failed because oil is still 80$ a barrel and the vast majority of governments are run by people wanting to line pockets.
It’s an example of a tangible asset Russia can back securities with
The whole point of buying securities is that they are liquid assets that can be traded as or like currency.
Borrowing money in a currency you yourself issue is a nonsensical concept.
It’s not really a radical concept…? Especially considering that every major economy does some form of debt monetization.
There is a difference between domestic market and international trade. The value of the currency domestically is not directly related to its trade value.
I think “Not only that, but currency being valued lower internationally actually plays in favor of the government in a country that’s primarily an exporter of goods.” Is kinda proof that there is a direct correlation. In a globalized economy domestic and international markets are inherently intertwined.
These collapses all directly relate to the decline in material conditions.
You don’t say…so what is causing the decline in material conditions?
Meanwhile, the dissolution of USSR was primarily political in nature.
Isn’t how we allocate productive forces always political in nature?
The economy of USSR was certainly in a far better shape than US is today where millions of people are currently starving, unable to get healthcare, or even afford housing.
You really think that the current US economy is doing worse than the Soviet Union in the late 80’s and early 90’s?
Food shortages were rampant in the 90s, even in Moscow. If we were utilizing the same metrics as America for “starving” (aka food insecurity) then the majority of the Soviet Union would have been “starving”.
Healthcare by the late 80s in the USSR had fallen tremendously, mostly because their transition to prioritizing outpatient care, which caused their hospital system started falling apart.
As far as housing… Yeah, America is always gonna win that particular shitty trophy. Though that’s not exactly because of an inability of production, moreso an inability to empathize with the working class.
I’m not claiming that America has a great economy, or that capitalism is the best economic system to distribute resources. Just that certain economic principals are relevant wether you have a command economy or not. China is a socialist state and they still back their debt with securities, because not doing so leads to currency instabilities in both the domestic and international sectors of the economy.
Collapses aren’t caused by loss of production capacity, they’re caused by misallocation of resources that leads to an unacceptable decline in the standard of living for the majority.
Oh, like 39% of the federal budget going to the military? You don’t think that might catch up with them at some point?
They’re very much printing money, meanwhile the demand for US bonds globally is in fact dropping.
Lol, I mean money is being printed in the literal sense. But, it’s still backed by securities.
As far as bond demand goes, it tends to dip and surge in popularity based on its yield.
There’s absolutely nothing preventing Russia from backing its currency with securities as well. In fact, Russia is in a much better position to do so because they’ve been stockpiling gold.
Securities are only valuable if the buyer believes they will be paid out once they have matured. Russia could start borrowing and utilizing securities, but they don’t exactly have a wide market to borrow from. Basically they’d have to borrow from China or maybe India, and those two likely wouldn’t be interested in gold reserves.
Gold isn’t a currency or even like a currency, it’s value declines the more it moves. It’s not exactly the best thing to back securities with, it’s more geared for purchasing when you have currency instabilities. More than likely they would have to back their securities with interest in oil/natural gass. However, that wouldn’t really help their problems too much, as that’s how they find their National Wealth Fund.
mean the fact that it can is literally the premise behind MMT.
Borrowing money is not the same as “printing money”.
very nature of currency is that it’s just a social contract. What actually matters is whether the country is able to allocate its productive forces effectively.
Yes, currency is a social contract, one that’s based on trust. How that currency performs and what it represents can influence that trust. Currency is not completely insulated from material realities, and the gap between the stated worth of the currency and the material realities of the country that determine that worth can determine how people outside the country will value it.
What actually matters is whether the country is able to allocate its productive forces effectively. As long as a country can continue to produce the things people need then the economy will be fine.
I mean… That’s a neat theory, but it kinda is easily disputed by nearly all economic collapses of the 19th century and onwards. If this is true, then did the Soviet Union’s economy explode simply due to an inability to allocate productive forces accordingly?
Has there been an economic collapse outside of a major war that was caused simply by a country losing its production capacity?
This means there’s no risk of default because the government can simply print money to pay off its debts. That’s how US is able to have national debt of $34.4 trillion right now. If The Economist thinks that Russia’s financial reserves will be exhausted in five years or so, then they have some explaining to do regarding the US.
The US is able to have a national debt of 34.4 trillion because people are still willing to lend them money. They aren’t just printing money, they are selling securities, which is similar to taking out a loan.
Printing more money in your own currency without backing it with some sort of security is just going to devalue your buying power and increase inflation. The Russian government is currently utilizing their reserves to sustain their spending, but if they run through those reserves they’re going to have to stop spending, or start selling securities. Either way, deficit spending cannot be solved via printing press.
First of all, ball bearings aren’t like artillery shells that are single use items either. It’s not like you need a constant stream of them.
Lol, bearings are one of the largest consumables in railway maintenance. You quite literally do need to have a constant supply, trains go through bearings faster than any other industrial implementation.
Second, I don’t think cheaply really plays a factor in this scenario.
Resources don’t matter in a country at war?
Meanwhile, I’m not sure what you premise the idea that Russia doesn’t already have ball bearing manufacturing domestically. USSR certainly did, and Russia inherited most of the industrial infrastructure.
Infrastructure doesn’t just preserve itself, industrial equipment gets sold off or parted out all the time. That’s the equivalent of saying America uses to produce all of its own steel, so they should still be able to do so now a days.
Plus, there’s a huge difference in modern bearing production compared to when the USSR was a industrial powerhouse. Modern bearings last a lot longer, and require less maintenance. That’s because they are made of M50 alloy steel or Fe-1C-1.5Cr alloy steel, which are also not domestically produced in Russia.
there’s also China with plenty of ball bearing manufacturing being done domestically https://www.fitrunbearing.com/blog/top-10-bearing-manufacturers-in-china/
Yes, China does produce around 20% of the ball bearings used in trains today. However, those are for their own domestic market and they don’t really export them due to the ever expanding rail network they are creating.
Large roller bearings are actually pretty difficult to produce cheaply and reliably at large scales. I don’t really see this as being unbelievable considering 75% of all bearings used in rail are produced by 10 companies in Japan, the US, Germany, and Sweden.
Creating a production line completely in house and at a scale that would be sufficient to supply one of the largest rail networks in the world be a Herculean task for just about any country.
Almost like propagating breakaway “states” in all of your neighbors territories empowers nationalist in said neighboring states?
How would you describe what Igor Girkins “paramilitary” group were doing in eastern Ukraine in 2014? You know, when he wasn’t shooting down a plane full of civilians…
would argue that Muslims are, by default, required by their religion to make the hajj. You make it sound as if it’s opt in, but their religion mandates it with some exceptions.
Nah dude, the vast majority of Muslims never go to mecca. It’s not a mandate anyone enforces but yourself. I think only like 9% of Muslims ever actually get to make the trip.
In the exclusive economic zone, the coastal State shall have the exclusive right to construct and to authorize and regulate the construction, operation and use of:
(a) artificial islands;
(b) installations and structures for the purposes provided for in article 56 and other economic purposes;
© installations and structures which may interfere with the exercise of the rights of the coastal State in the zone.
There no language in the EEZ article that mentions “territorial military outpost”.
According to who?
In the exclusive economic zone, the coastal State shall have the exclusive right to construct and to authorize and regulate the construction, operation and use of:
(a) artificial islands;
(b) installations and structures for the purposes provided for in article 56 and other economic purposes;
© installations and structures which may interfere with the exercise of the rights of the coastal State in the zone.
Can you link what article that falls under?
Nah, there’s pretty clear rules. It’s just that the main power in the region tends to ignore them when it suits them. Again, how is the Philippine government breaking international law?
I think that’s more plausible than China’s claim that their exclusive economic zone stretches over a thousand miles off their coast, and supercedes both Vietnams and the Philippines exclusive economic zones…
What’s your point?
You seemed to be suggesting that what the Philippines is doing is breaking the rules of unclos, but you haven’t explained how.
but flouts it at every opportunity. International law for thee but not for me.
How? They are allowed to protect the resources in their exclusive economic zone. China on the other hand is still attempting to enforce a claim that was invalidated by international courts in 2016.
Seems like you might be projecting on the behalf of China.
And how exactly does China’s claim work within unclos? The shoal is only 190nm away from the Philippines and should be part of the Philippines exclusive economic zone. If there is any questions of legitimate territorial claim it would be with Vietnam not China.
Also, stopping any navigation within your own exclusive economic zone goes against unclos, let alone stopping navigation of a country in their own exclusive economic zone.
No, it’s not socially acceptable. Yes, I wish it were.
Like, does this mean you are afraid of other people you don’t know judging you, or that you or your friends find it socially unacceptable?
Either way that seems to be more of an individual problem rather than a social one. I am physically affectionate with my friends and have never been confronted about it by a member of the public , not that I would really care if I were. People be dumb, I’m not going to let someone else’s projected homophobia dictate my friendship.
Japan is still a fairly insular nation, especially in regards to the topic of history. During the Meiji restoration they basically rewrote their own history, which also kinda requires you to ignore or reshape everyone else’s history to suit your perspective. As a result, I doubt world history is very well covered in their public education.
It’s clear that we have a very different definition for what the word evidence means.
My friend, I am not trying to be argumentative. I am simply trying to improve your ability to logically frame an argument.
If I wrote a scientific paper and claimed one piece of evidence was enough to prove my theory I would be laughed out of academia.
Have a good day.
You as well.
Again, you’re conflating two different things here. Evidence and hearsay are simply not the same thing.
I’m not conflating the two, I’m saying hearsay is a type of evidence, it’s just not a very good one. You can use hearsay to support your overall claim, but that can’t be the only peice of evidence you use. It’s not transferrable unless attached to a greater body of evidence.
There is a big logical difference between something that’s a verifiable a fact and and assertion.
Yes, hearsay and anecdotal evidence are not proof that something happened. They are a claim that something happened.
There is no evidence anecdotal or otherwise to support the assertion.
We’ve just made the whole circle again. I think you may be accidentally conflating the meaning of evidence with the meaning of proof. Perhaps English is your second language?
“Proof is a fact that demonstrates something to be real or true. Evidence is information that might lead one to believe something to be real or true.”
Furthermore, legally speaking, both anecdotal evidence and hearsay have zero value if you really want to go down that route.
That is what I have been saying the entire time.
Dental eugenol, it’s a fairly powerful local analgesic made from clove oil. Some people have adverse reactions to it and so it isn’t used as frequently as it used to. So I would recommend applying it in a small test area before applying it more liberally.
You can buy it online fairly cheaply.